After enduring a prolonged period of turbulence—from the COVID-19 pandemic to global geopolitical conflicts—the Cambodian real estate sector has barely had time to recover before facing another unexpected shock: the recent military tension along the Thai–Cambodian border.
While this situation was unforeseen and emotionally impactful, especially for Cambodian citizens, it is important to analyze the real estate market through a long-term, structural, and rational lens, rather than through fear or short-term sentiment.
In my view, 2026 marks the beginning of a new phase for Cambodia’s real estate market—a phase of maturity, normalization, and sustainability.
The era of “buy today, flip tomorrow” is largely over. Short-term and speculative gains will no longer define success. Instead, the market is transitioning toward stable pricing, gradual growth, and real economic use.
Below are my key perspectives for the Cambodian real estate market in 2026.
1. A More Mature and Stable Market
We are unlikely to see price surges driven purely by speculation, hype, or unverified narratives, as in previous cycles. Investors and buyers are no longer asking, “How much will this property increase in price next year?”
Instead, the more important questions are:
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What can this property be used for immediately?
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Can it generate sustainable income?
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Does it serve a real market demand?
The 2026 market is increasingly demand-driven, favoring end-users and income-generating assets rather than land banking for quick appreciation. This is a positive signal for long-term economic stability.
For investors with strong cash positions, this environment still offers opportunities—particularly in:
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Rental properties
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Commercial locations
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Assets priced below intrinsic or replacement value
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Mid-range properties with practical use cases
However, buying in 2026 must be data-driven, not emotional, and never based solely on media narratives or market noise.
2. Strategic Shift Among Property Developers: From Quantity to Quality
Developers can no longer rely on repetitive designs and basic housing concepts.
2026 is the year of “quality of living.”
Today’s buyers are:
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More informed
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More selective
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Highly comparative
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Digitally empowered
Successful projects will be those that emphasize:
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Strong project management
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Pleasant environments
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Green and sustainable design
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Community planning
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Smart technology integration
Projects that align with the preferences of younger generations, particularly Gen Z, will gain a competitive advantage, especially those offering lifestyle value rather than just physical structures.
3. Infrastructure as the Primary Growth Engine
The launch of new international airports and major infrastructure projects is reshaping Cambodia’s economic geography.
Well-connected suburban zones are emerging as new growth corridors—particularly for:
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Residential borey projects
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Logistics and warehouse developments
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Hotels and serviced residences
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Commercial and satellite city developments
The southern corridor near the new international airport is expected to experience increased development activity. That said, past issues such as fraud, poorly planned projects, and lack of transparency have damaged market trust.
Therefore, future success depends on:
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Clear master planning
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Adequate capital backing
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Transparent execution
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Long-term operational strategies
This is no longer a market where developers can rely on pre-sales hype alone.
4. Financial Conditions: A Gradual Tailwind
Recent adjustments in both global and domestic monetary policy have resulted in relatively softer interest rate conditions compared to previous years.
If lending rates remain at reasonable levels (below approximately 8%), this will:
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Improve cash flow for investors
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Support purchasing power for end-users
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Encourage gradual re-entry into the market
However, easy credit alone will not drive speculation as before. Capital is becoming more disciplined and selective.
5. Economic Activity Is Slowly Returning
After nearly four years of hesitation and capital preservation, many individuals and businesses are reaching a psychological and practical limit of “waiting.”
In 2026, we are likely to see:
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Increased business formation
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Expansion of small and medium enterprises
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Renewed economic activity
This recovery directly supports demand for:
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Commercial buildings
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Shophouses
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Warehouses
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Well-located rental assets
The rental market, especially in functional locations, shows early signs of stabilization and potential recovery.
6. Geopolitical Tension and Its Market Impact
The recent border conflict has inevitably affected investor confidence, particularly in border regions. Even if a ceasefire holds and disputes are resolved through legal and international mechanisms, psychological impact tends to linger.
In the short to medium term:
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Border-area properties may face slower recovery
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Investor caution will remain elevated
However, one notable consequence is a strengthening of domestic production sentiment. Reduced reliance on foreign imports—particularly from Thailand—may accelerate:
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Local manufacturing
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Industrial investment
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Factory and warehouse demand
This trend could benefit Cambodia’s industrial real estate sector, especially if supported by government incentives and private-sector collaboration.
7. Capital Gains Tax Exemption: A Temporary Relief
The government’s decision to extend the capital gains tax exemption for another year provides significant relief—especially for property owners looking to exit.
Given current conditions:
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Prices remain relatively low
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Sellers outnumber buyers
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Buyers are highly price-sensitive
The exemption reduces selling pressure and may encourage owners to:
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Liquidate assets
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Reduce long-standing debt burdens
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Reallocate capital into more productive uses
Once capital gains tax is fully implemented, transaction volumes may naturally slow.
8. A New Reality for Developers: Efficiency Over Speed
For developers, 2026 is not a high-margin, fast-exit environment.
Success now requires:
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Strong internal systems
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Skilled management and leadership
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Careful cost control (including hidden costs)
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Professional design and construction standards
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Competent digital marketing teams
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Ethical, well-trained sales forces
This is a period of capacity-building, not opportunistic expansion. Developers who fail to adapt may struggle to survive the next cycle.
Final Message to Investors
Do not invest based on rumors, hype, or herd mentality.
Invest based on data, real demand, and long-term potential.
The Cambodian real estate market in 2026 is not weak—it is resetting.
This phase rewards patience, discipline, and strategic thinking.
Those who understand the cycle will be positioned not just to survive—but to emerge stronger.
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